SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-97%
of % moves
In sync
3%
of periods
History
1,244
days · through 2026-04-30
These move opposite each other about 3% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~94% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
3.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-97%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-97% → -97%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,244 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
12,297
Normalized
1,255
12,297
Prepared
1,255
12,297
Aligned
1,244
1,244
Invalid removed
Explore
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
94.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,244
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,244 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
246 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,064
A: 11 / B: 11053
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,297 raw → 12,297 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0118
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.0452
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dgs30_stock-tmf_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.