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Correlation
of % moves
-23%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
323
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-34% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
323 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
327
9,268
Normalized
327
9,268
Prepared
327
9,268
Aligned
323
323
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
322
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
322 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
146 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,949
A: 4 / B: 8945
Series A
Nakamoto Inc. Common Stock (NAKA)
NAKA
Stock · 327 raw → 327 prepared
Series B
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,268 raw → 9,268 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1624
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0037
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-vixcls_stock-naka_daily_5y