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Correlation
of values
+70%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
1,900
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~48% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+70%
Based on values
95% CI
+67% → +72%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,900 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
9,202
2,891
Normalized
9,202
2,891
Prepared
1,901
2,891
Aligned
1,900
1,900
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
48.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,900
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+70%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,900 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
992
A: 1 / B: 991
Series A
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,202 raw → 1,901 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 2,891 prepared
Sign agreement
9.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
154
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0445
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.2682
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-vixcls_weekly_5y