SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
+53%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-09
435
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+53%
Based on values
95% CI
+46% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
435 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
9,176
706
Normalized
9,176
706
Prepared
1,896
706
Aligned
435
435
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
435
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
435 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+28%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+55%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,732
A: 1461 / B: 271
Series A
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,176 raw → 1,896 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
70
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4009
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-21.3917
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-vixcls_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.