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Correlation
of values
+56%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
439
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~31% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on values
95% CI
+49% → +62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
439 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
9,268
710
Normalized
9,268
710
Prepared
441
710
Aligned
439
439
Invalid removed
R²(i)
31%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
439
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
439 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+94%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
47 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
273
A: 2 / B: 271
Series A
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,268 raw → 441 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
68
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4661
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-22.5685
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-vixcls_monthly_5y