SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 3.2T · 228,000 employees
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+12%) and fall (+4%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
260 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with St. Louis Financial Stress Index at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-41%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-51% → -31%
Likely range
R²
17.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
41.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
260
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,687
Normalized
1,255
1,687
Prepared
261
1,687
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
145 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,428
A: 1 / B: 1427
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 3.2T · 228,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 1,687 prepared
Sign agreement
8.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0959
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-msft_5y
STLFSI4
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Strongest positive