SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 44% of the time
Light positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Chevron is an integrated energy company with exploration, production, and refining operations worldwide. It is the second-largest oil company in the United States with 2025 worldwide net oil-equivalent production of 3.7 million barrels per day, including 8.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and 2.3 million barrels of liquids per day. Production takes place in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company's refining networks arelocated in the United States and Asia, with a total worldwide refining capacity of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day at year-end 2025. Net proved reserves at year-end 2025 stood at 10.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, consist
Market cap 368.1B · 43,039 employees
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+75%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of +25%.
CVX moves ~4 weeks before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch CVX for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+16%) and fall (+15%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+4 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+33%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 4 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Chevron Corporation today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 4 weeks from now?"
256 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 4 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+25%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+14% → +36%
Likely range
R²
6.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
44.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
260
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,687
Normalized
1,255
1,687
Prepared
261
1,687
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
137 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,428
A: 1 / B: 1427
Series A
Chevron Corporation
CVX
Market cap 368.1B · 43,039 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 1,687 prepared
Sign agreement
8.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0039
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.0717
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-cvx_5y
STLFSI4
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Strongest positive