SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 35% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Rithm Capital Corp operates as a real estate investment trust that provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services industries. The company aims to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in all interest-rate environments through a complementary portfolio of investments and operating businesses. Its investment portfolio is composed of mortgage servicing-related assets (full and excess MSRs and servicer advances), residential securities (and associated call rights), loans (including single-family rental), and consumer loans. Its operating segments are Origination and Servicing; Investment Portfolio; Residential Transitional Lending; and Asset Management.
Market cap 5.7B · 7,240 employees
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+11%) and fall (+4%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
195 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with St. Louis Financial Stress Index at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-54%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-64% → -44%
Likely range
R²
29.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
35.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
195
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
195 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
941
1,687
Normalized
941
1,687
Prepared
196
1,687
Aligned
195
195
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,493
A: 1 / B: 1492
Series A
Rithm Capital Corp.
RITM
Market cap 5.7B · 7,240 employees
Stock · 941 raw → 196 prepared
Series B
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 1,687 prepared
Sign agreement
5.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1313
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8464
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-ritm_5y
STLFSI4
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Strongest positive