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Correlation
of % moves
+24%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
44
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
MKFG moves ~5 months before Personal Consumption
Watch MKFG for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-7% → +50%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
895
811
Normalized
895
811
Prepared
44
811
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
43
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+42%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Personal Consumption shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does MKFG today line up with Personal Consumption 5 months from now?"
38 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+12%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
767
A: 0 / B: 767
Series A
MKFG
Stock · 895 raw → 44 prepared
Series B
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0043
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0056
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 months ago · ID: fred-pce_stock-mkfg_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.