SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 83% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Personal Consumption
PCE
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+95%) is 2.5σ from the long-run average of +98% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Rock solid
Correlation barely moves across time windows — treat this as a reliable relationship.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
807 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with M2 Money Supply at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+98%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+98% → +98%
Likely range
R²
95.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
83.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
807
Normalized
807
807
Prepared
807
807
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+88%
213 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-90%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
PCE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
M2SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0638
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-744.3346
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:m2sl|fred:pce|5Y
M2SL
M2 Money Supply
Strongest positive