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Correlation
of values
+99%
In sync
of periods
84%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
243
These move in the same direction about 84% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~99% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
84%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+99%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
244
Normalized
809
244
Prepared
809
244
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
99%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+99%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
243 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+99%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+99%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
197 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-86%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
567
A: 566 / B: 1
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0013
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.5700
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-pce_monthly_5y