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Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
44
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
M2 Money Supply moves ~17 months before MKFG
Watch M2 Money Supply for an early read on MKFG.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-9% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
895
812
Normalized
895
812
Prepared
44
812
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
43
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
+39%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 Money Supply shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does MKFG today line up with M2 Money Supply 17 months ago?"
26 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+91%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
768
A: 0 / B: 768
Series A
MKFG
Stock · 895 raw → 44 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 812 raw → 812 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0043
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0011
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 months ago · ID: fred-m2sl_stock-mkfg_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.