SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 66% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
Retail Sales
RSAFS
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+62%) and fall (+81%) — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
Correlation drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
411 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Retail Sales at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+98%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+98% → +99%
Likely range
R²
96.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
65.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
411
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
411 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
411
Normalized
807
411
Prepared
807
411
Aligned
411
411
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+62%
151 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+81%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-91%
91 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
396
A: 396 / B: 0
Series A
M2SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
25.4342
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
130061.0400
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:m2sl|fred:rsafs|5Y
RSAFS
Retail Sales
Strongest positive