Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-05
303
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~38% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Job Openings moves ~12 weeks before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch Job Openings for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-68% → -54%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
303 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
11,085
303
Normalized
11,085
303
Prepared
2,313
303
Aligned
303
303
Invalid removed
R²(i)
37.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
303
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 10Y-3M Yield Spread today line up with Job Openings 12 weeks ago?"
291 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
135 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,010
A: 2010 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 2,313 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 303 raw → 303 prepared
Sign agreement
83.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1041.9156
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6946.3460
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-t10y3m_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.