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Correlation
of values
-63%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
308
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Job Openings moves ~15 months before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch Job Openings for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on values
95% CI
-69% → -56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
308 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,169
308
Normalized
11,169
308
Prepared
537
308
Aligned
308
308
Invalid removed
R²(i)
40%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
308
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-76%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-3M Yield Spread today line up with Job Openings 15 months ago?"
293 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+20%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
88 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
229
A: 229 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,169 raw → 537 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 308 raw → 308 prepared
Sign agreement
84.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1075.4367
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7023.6866
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y