SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+51%
of % moves
In sync
47%
of periods
History
1,196
days · through 2026-05-04
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+51%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+47% → +55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,196 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,741
Normalized
1,255
1,741
Prepared
1,255
1,741
Aligned
1,196
1,196
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
25.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,196
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,196 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-45%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
239 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
604
A: 59 / B: 545
Series A
ITW
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
47
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0416
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-6.2827
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-iorb_stock-itw_5y