Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-31
262
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~83% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
+89% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
262 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,888
1,832
Normalized
2,888
1,832
Prepared
2,888
263
Aligned
262
262
Invalid removed
R²(i)
83%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
262
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
262 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+58%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
214 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,627
A: 2626 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,888 raw → 2,888 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,832 raw → 263 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.3334
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4.3928
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y