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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
254
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~84% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+89% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
254 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,880
1,777
Normalized
2,880
1,777
Prepared
2,880
255
Aligned
254
254
Invalid removed
R²(i)
83.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
254
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
254 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+58%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
222 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,627
A: 2626 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 2,880 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 255 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.3399
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4.4112
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-iorb_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y