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Correlation
of values
+53%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
5,924
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~28% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+53%
Based on values
95% CI
+51% → +55%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,924 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,925
12,385
Normalized
5,925
12,385
Prepared
5,925
12,385
Aligned
5,924
5,924
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
28%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,924
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,924 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,462
A: 1 / B: 6461
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,385 raw → 12,385 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
44
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.7355
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1832
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y