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Correlation
of values
+98%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~96% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on values
95% CI
+98% → +98%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,302
532
Normalized
12,302
532
Prepared
592
532
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
96.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
532 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+69%
89 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+71%
107 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
53 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
60
A: 60 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,302 raw → 592 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 532 raw → 532 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6512
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.3260
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y