SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
663
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
AUD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~9 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch AUD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+14% → +29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
706
13,863
Normalized
706
13,863
Prepared
706
664
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
+32%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
AUD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities today line up with AUD/USD Exchange Rate 9 months ago?"
654 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
44
A: 43 / B: 1
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,863 raw → 664 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0021
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8333
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-recprousm156n_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.