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Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
26%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
5,152
These move in the same direction about 26% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~71% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
26%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,152 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,950
5,179
Normalized
13,950
5,179
Prepared
13,950
5,179
Aligned
5,152
5,152
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
71%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,152
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,152 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-94%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,825
A: 8798 / B: 27
Series A
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,950 raw → 13,950 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,179 raw → 5,179 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-97.9249
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
189.8680
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-dtwexemegs_daily_5y