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Correlation
of values
-54%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
11,375
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~29% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-54%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,375 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,868
11,375
Normalized
13,868
11,375
Prepared
13,868
11,375
Aligned
11,375
11,375
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,375
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,375 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,493
A: 2493 / B: 0
Series A
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,868 raw → 13,868 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 11,375 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.6812
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.9723
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-dexusal_daily_5y