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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
609
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~13 months before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
609 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
673
13,923
Normalized
673
13,923
Prepared
673
667
Aligned
609
609
Invalid removed
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
609
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 13 months from now?"
568 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
122
A: 64 / B: 58
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,923 raw → 667 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0045
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8813
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y