SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-83%
of values
In sync
43%
of periods
History
161
weeks · through 2026-01
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~69% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~12 weeks before Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
-87% → -78%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
161 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
10,119
317
Normalized
10,119
317
Prepared
2,105
317
Aligned
161
161
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
69.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
161
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-91%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Baa Corporate Bond Yield today line up with Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator 12 weeks from now?"
149 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-14%
92 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,100
A: 1944 / B: 156
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,119 raw → 2,105 prepared
Series B
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
GDPDEF
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-8.5050
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
143.3844
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-gdpdef_5y