SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-88%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-14
162
These move opposite each other about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~12 weeks before Potential GDP
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Potential GDP.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-88%
Based on values
95% CI
-91% → -83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
162 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
10,119
352
Normalized
10,119
352
Prepared
2,105
352
Aligned
162
162
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
76.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
162
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-94%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Potential GDP shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Baa Corporate Bond Yield today line up with Potential GDP 12 weeks from now?"
150 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+19%
88 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,133
A: 1943 / B: 190
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,119 raw → 2,105 prepared
Series B
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1890.2303
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
28954.5170
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-gdppot_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.