SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+67%
of values
In sync
58%
of periods
History
96
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~45% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+67%
Based on values
95% CI
+55% → +77%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
96 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,018
241
Normalized
2,018
241
Prepared
98
241
Aligned
96
96
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
45.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
96
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+80%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months ago?"
78 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
147
A: 2 / B: 145
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 98 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
29.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-sofr_5y