SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-7%
of values
In sync
56%
of periods
History
247
days · through 2026-04-18
These move opposite each other about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~6 days before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on values
95% CI
-19% → +6%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
247 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,741
3,094
Normalized
1,741
3,094
Prepared
1,741
3,094
Aligned
247
247
Invalid removed
Explore
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
247
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
+23%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does Interest on Reserve Balances today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 6 days from now?"
241 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
+23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
237 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,341
A: 1494 / B: 2847
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,094 raw → 3,094 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-9604.7573
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1833093.2421
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-iorb_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.