SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+16%
of values
In sync
37%
of periods
History
96
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Monetary Base moves ~18 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Monetary Base for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+16%
Based on values
95% CI
-4% → +35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
96 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,018
807
Normalized
2,018
807
Prepared
98
807
Aligned
96
96
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
2.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
96
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+83%
+67% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with Monetary Base 18 months ago?"
78 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-37%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
61 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
713
A: 2 / B: 711
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 98 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
80.8857
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4854.6759
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-sofr_5y