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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
640
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~84% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+90% → +93%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
640 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
13,039
Normalized
808
13,039
Prepared
808
642
Aligned
640
640
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
84.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
640
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
640 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+73%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
170
A: 168 / B: 2
Series A
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,039 raw → 642 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0408
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
29.3532
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-dexslus_monthly_5y