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Correlation
of values
+32%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
284
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
10Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch 10Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on values
95% CI
+21% → +42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
284 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,925
1,292
Normalized
5,925
1,292
Prepared
285
1,292
Aligned
284
284
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
284
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months from now?"
266 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+57%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,009
A: 1 / B: 1008
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 285 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.8113
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-t10yie_monthly_5y