Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
391
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~70% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
-87% → -81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,289
8,167
Normalized
1,289
8,167
Prepared
1,289
392
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
R²(i)
70.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
391
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
391 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
48 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
899
A: 898 / B: 1
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,289 raw → 1,289 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,167 raw → 392 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.6477
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
27.2487
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-aaa_fred-dexmxus_monthly_5y