Correlation Analysis
Toast, Inc. vs VISA Inc.
TOST vs V
+0.616
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Toast, Inc.
↗TOST
Toast Inc is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the restaurant community. The company provides a comprehensive platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as a restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models such as dine-in, takeout, and delivery. It operates through one reportable segment consisting of its SaaS products, financial technology solutions, integrated payments, hardware, and partner ecosystem.
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
VISA Inc.
↗V
Visa is the largest payment processor in the world. In fiscal 2025, it processed almost $17 trillion in total volume. Visa operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 160 currencies. Its systems are capable of processing over 65,000 transactions per second.
Market cap 583.4B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
V leads TOST by 6 days
V tends to move before TOST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.641 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.097
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.027
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.697
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
38.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
62.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,139
Deep shared window — 1,139 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.579, 0.651]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,139 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,139
1,254
Normalized
1,139
1,254
Prepared
1,139
1,254
Aligned
1,139
1,139
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
115
A: 0 / B: 115
Series A
Toast, Inc.
TOST
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Stock · 1,139 raw → 1,139 prepared
Series B
VISA Inc.
V
Market cap 583.4B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.1733
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
179.1301
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-tost-vs-stock-v-daily