Correlation Analysis
Toast, Inc. vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
TOST vs XOM
-0.085
Weak inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Toast, Inc.
↗TOST
Toast Inc is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the restaurant community. The company provides a comprehensive platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as a restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models such as dine-in, takeout, and delivery. It operates through one reportable segment consisting of its SaaS products, financial technology solutions, integrated payments, hardware, and partner ecosystem.
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
TOST leads XOM by 5 days
TOST tends to move before XOM.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.085 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.124
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.037
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.770
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
0.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,139
Deep shared window — 1,139 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.01
95% CI: [-0.142, -0.027]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,139 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,139
1,254
Normalized
1,139
1,254
Prepared
1,139
1,254
Aligned
1,139
1,139
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
115
A: 0 / B: 115
Series A
Toast, Inc.
TOST
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Stock · 1,139 raw → 1,139 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1510
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
109.9530
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-tost-vs-stock-xom-daily