Correlation Analysis
Nvidia Corp vs PAYEMS
NVDA vs PAYEMS
+0.731
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Nvidia Corp
↗NVDA
Nvidia is a leading developer of graphics processing units. Traditionally, GPUs were used to enhance the experience on computing platforms, most notably in gaming applications on PCs. GPU use cases have since emerged as important semiconductors used in artificial intelligence to run large language models. Nvidia not only offers AI GPUs, but also a software platform, Cuda, used for AI model development and training. Nvidia is also expanding its data center networking solutions, helping to tie GPUs together to handle complex workloads.
Market cap 4.3T
PAYEMS
PAYEMS
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
PAYEMS leads NVDA by 6 months
PAYEMS tends to move before NVDA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.794 (they moved in the same direction).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.398
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.120
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
53.4%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
55.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
60
Thin shared window — 60 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.585, 0.831]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,047
Normalized
1,254
1,047
Prepared
61
1,047
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
988
A: 1 / B: 987
Series A
Nvidia Corp
NVDA
Market cap 4.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
47.5704
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
151327.5180
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-nvda-vs-fred-payems-monthly-20260408-1mmran