Correlation Analysis
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock vs PAYEMS
TSLA vs PAYEMS
+0.231
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
↗TSLA
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling a sports car and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2025 were nearly 1.64 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network and an auto insurance business.
Market cap 1.3T
PAYEMS
PAYEMS
Who Moves First
in sync
TSLA and PAYEMS tend to move at the same time.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.231 (13 shifts scanned)
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.191
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.239
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
5.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
45.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
60
Thin shared window — 60 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.024, 0.458]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
60 paired observations survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,047
Normalized
1,254
1,047
Prepared
61
1,047
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
988
A: 1 / B: 987
Series A
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA
Market cap 1.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
11.3473
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
151820.8551
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-tsla-vs-fred-payems-monthly-20260408-7nifhi