Correlation Analysis
Gross Domestic Product vs All Employees, Total Nonfarm
GDP vs PAYEMS
+0.908
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between GDP and PAYEMS indicates that changes in employment levels closely track economic output, suggesting that rising employment typically precedes increases in GDP by about six months. This timing is crucial for investors and policymakers, as it implies that monitoring employment trends can provide valuable insights into future economic growth. However, it's important to consider that while the relationship is robust, it doesn't account for all factors influencing the economy, so it should be used alongside other indicators for a comprehensive analysis.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 6 periods
PAYEMS tends to move before GDP.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.936 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
81.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
82.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
316
Robust shared window — 316 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.819, 0.950] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
316 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
316
1,047
Normalized
316
1,047
Prepared
316
1,047
Aligned
316
316
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
731
A: 0 / B: 731
Series A
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
FRED · 316 raw → 316 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
All Employees, Total Nonfarm
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.8851
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
67929.0925
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-gdp-vs-fred-payems-daily-20260406-abpy0n