Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Philip Morris International Inc.
MSFT vs PM
+0.701
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Philip Morris International Inc.
↗PM
Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI is not only dominant in smokable products but also has the Iqos and Zyn brands, which respectively dominate heated tobacco and nicotine pouches in most markets. It also owns the Veev brand in vapes.
Market cap 249.9B
Who Moves First
MSFT leads PM by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before PM.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.707 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.538
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.320
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.813
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
49.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
53.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.671, 0.728]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM
Market cap 249.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2439
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
28.2013
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Highest
+0.938
Cadence Design Systems
CDNS · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.867
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY · 1,254 observations
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Highest
+0.923
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT · 1,254 observations
Lowest
+0.461
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 observations
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-pm-daily-20260408-4oebzg