Correlation Analysis
Philip Morris International Inc. vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
PM vs WMT
+0.923
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Philip Morris International Inc.
↗PM
Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI is not only dominant in smokable products but also has the Iqos and Zyn brands, which respectively dominate heated tobacco and nicotine pouches in most markets. It also owns the Veev brand in vapes.
Market cap 249.9B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
WMT leads PM by 6 days
WMT tends to move before PM.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.925 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.865
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.490
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
85.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
62.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.914, 0.930]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM
Market cap 249.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
68
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7762
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-22.9978
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Highest
+0.897
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.461
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-pm-vs-stock-wmt-daily