Correlation Analysis
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
MRNA vs XOM
-0.754
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
↗MRNA
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its covid vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 35 mRNA development candidates in clinical studies as of August 2025. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.
Market cap 19.3B · 4,700 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
XOM leads MRNA by 6 days
XOM tends to move before MRNA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.763 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.132
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.058
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.764
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
56.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
51.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.777, -0.729]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
MRNA
Market cap 19.3B · 4,700 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1870
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
124.7895
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
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