Correlation Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated vs Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
MA vs MRNA
-0.728
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
↗MRNA
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its covid vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 35 mRNA development candidates in clinical studies as of August 2025. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.
Market cap 19.3B · 4,700 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
MRNA leads MA by 6 days
MRNA tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.732 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.401
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.271
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.606
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
53.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
58.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.753, -0.701]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
MRNA
Market cap 19.3B · 4,700 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7629
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
454.4946
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-ma-vs-stock-mrna-daily