Correlation Analysis
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock vs PAYEMS
GOOGL vs PAYEMS
+0.498
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
↗GOOGL
Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google. The California-based company derives slightly less than 90% of its revenue from Google services, the vast majority of which is advertising sales. Alongside online ads, Google services houses sales stemming from Google's subscription services (YouTube TV and YouTube Music, among others), platforms (sales and in-app purchases on Play Store), and devices (Chromebooks, Pixel smartphones, and smart home products such as Chromecast). Google's cloud computing platform accounts for roughly 10% of Alphabet's revenue. The firm's investments in up-and-coming technologies such as self-driving cars (Waymo), health (Verily), and internet access (Google Fiber) make up the rest.
Market cap 3.6T
PAYEMS
PAYEMS
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
PAYEMS leads GOOGL by 6 months
PAYEMS tends to move before GOOGL.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.566 (they moved in the same direction).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.406
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.205
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
24.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
55.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
60
Thin shared window — 60 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.280, 0.668]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,047
Normalized
1,254
1,047
Prepared
61
1,047
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
988
A: 1 / B: 987
Series A
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
GOOGL
Market cap 3.6T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
34.8083
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
149456.9051
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
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