SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Deutsche Telekom merged its T-Mobile USA unit with prepaid specialist MetroPCS in 2013, and that firm merged with Sprint in 2020, creating the second-largest wireless carrier in the US. T-Mobile now serves 86 million postpaid and 26 million prepaid phone customers, equal to around 30% of the US retail wireless market. The firm entered the fixed-wireless broadband market aggressively in 2021 and now serves 8 million residential and business customers with its wireless network. It also serves 1 million fiber broadband customers through joint ventures with fiber network owners. T-Mobile owns a stake in these firms, which provide wholesale access to their networks. In addition, T-Mobile provides
Market cap 202.2B · 75,000 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-28%) and fall (-18%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
261 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-90%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-92% → -87%
Likely range
R²
81.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
40.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
147 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
T-Mobile US, Inc.
TMUS
Market cap 202.2B · 75,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-17766.2652
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10793754.0509
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-tmus_5y