SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+6%
of values
In sync
53%
of periods
History
279
weeks · through 2026-09
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~11 weeks before 5Y Breakeven Inflation
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on 5Y Breakeven Inflation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+6%
Based on values
95% CI
-5% → +18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
279 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
807
5,837
Normalized
807
5,837
Prepared
807
1,218
Aligned
279
279
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
279
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+11 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+13%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 11 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 11 weeks from now?"
268 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+6%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 weeks
+13%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
118 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,467
A: 528 / B: 939
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 1,218 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.9085
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-t5yie_fred-totresns_5y