SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-22%
of values
In sync
52%
of periods
History
388
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Bank Reserves moves ~10 months before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-31% → -12%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
388 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
1,687
Normalized
807
1,687
Prepared
807
389
Aligned
388
388
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
4.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
388
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
-27%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 10 months from now?"
378 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+67%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
118 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
420
A: 419 / B: 1
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 389 prepared
Sign agreement
36.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.2098
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_fred-totresns_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.