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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
98
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~8 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
98 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,061
389
Normalized
2,061
389
Prepared
100
389
Aligned
98
98
Invalid removed
22%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
-53%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 8 months ago?"
82 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
53 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
293
A: 2 / B: 291
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,061 raw → 100 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 389 raw → 389 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6750
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.1805
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sofr_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y