SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-47%
of values
In sync
58%
of periods
History
95
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~9 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-62% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
95 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,018
386
Normalized
2,018
386
Prepared
98
386
Aligned
95
95
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
22.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
95
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-53%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 9 months ago?"
86 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
294
A: 3 / B: 291
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 98 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 386 raw → 386 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6777
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.1772
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-sofr_fred-u6rate_5y