SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 37% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Shopify offers an e-commerce platform primarily to small and medium-size businesses. The firm has two segments. The subscription solutions segment allows Shopify merchants to conduct e-commerce on a variety of platforms, including the company's website, physical stores, pop-up stores, kiosks, social networks (Facebook), and Amazon. The merchant solutions segment offers add-on products for the platform that facilitate e-commerce and include Shopify Payments, Shopify Shipping, and Shopify Capital.
Market cap 165.8B · 7,600 employees
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-36%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of -73%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+9%) and fall (+16%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-73%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
751 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with IG Bond Spread at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-73%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-77% → -70%
Likely range
R²
54.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
36.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
751
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
751 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
785
Normalized
1,255
785
Prepared
1,255
785
Aligned
751
751
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
183 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
538
A: 504 / B: 34
Series A
Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
SHOP
Market cap 165.8B · 7,600 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0041
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3594
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_stock-shop_5y
BAMLC0A0CM
IG Bond Spread
Strongest positive