SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-17%
of values
In sync
57%
of periods
History
96
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-17%
Based on values
95% CI
-36% → +3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
96 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,018
706
Normalized
2,018
706
Prepared
98
706
Aligned
96
96
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
2.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
96
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-17%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
96 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
47 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
612
A: 2 / B: 610
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 98 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.2352
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.8000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-sofr_5y