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Correlation
of values
+66%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
808
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+66%
Based on values
95% CI
+62% → +70%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
808
Normalized
1,049
808
Prepared
1,049
808
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
44.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
808 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+8%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
241
A: 241 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0235
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1890.0958
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_fred-totresns_monthly_5y