SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+99%
of values
In sync
78%
of periods
History
317
days · through 2026-01-01
These move in the same direction about 78% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~98% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
78.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+99%
Based on values
95% CI
+99% → +99%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
317 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,047
317
Normalized
1,047
317
Prepared
1,047
317
Aligned
317
317
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
98.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
317
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+99%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
317 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+99%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+99%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+79%
175 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+97%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
730
A: 730 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Series B
Real gross domestic product per capita
A939RX0Q048SBEA
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4423
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5364.5889
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-a939rx0q048sbea_fred-payems_5y