• Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~6 days before US GDP

  Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on US GDP.

The strong correlation between GDP and PAYEMS indicates that changes in employment levels closely track economic output, suggesting that rising employment typically precedes increases in GDP by about six months. This timing is crucial for investors and policymakers, as it implies that monitoring employment trends can provide valuable insights into future economic growth. However, it's important to consider that while the relationship is robust, it doesn't account for all factors influencing the economy, so it should be used alongside other indicators for a comprehensive analysis.

See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.

The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.