SeriesMag|r|OverlapThrough
Correlation Analysis
GDP vs UNRATE
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
Near-zero inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
US GDP
GDP
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
What to Watch
Unemployment Rate moves ~6 days before US GDP
Watch Unemployment Rate for an early read on US GDP.
AI Analysis
The correlation between GDP and the unemployment rate is very weak, indicating that changes in GDP do not consistently predict movements in unemployment. While there is a slight tendency for unemployment to lead GDP changes by about six months, this relationship is not strong enough to rely on for investment decisions. Caution is warranted, as the low R-squared value suggests that other factors significantly influence both series, and the trend alignment is only moderately consistent.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+0.379
+0.31 stronger than no-shift baseline
Unemployment Rate shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does US GDP today line up with Unemployment Rate 6 days ago?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Unemployment Rate shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.299
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.353
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
r
-0.028
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-0.39 → 0.26
Likely range
R²
0.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
42.9%
Same-direction moves
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
311
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
311 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
316
938
Normalized
316
938
Prepared
316
938
Aligned
311
311
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
632
A: 5 / B: 627
Series A
GDP
FRED · 316 raw → 316 prepared
Series B
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.7485
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp-vs-fred-unrate-daily-20260406-sz4035