SeriesMag|r|OverlapThrough
Correlation Analysis
GDP vs PAYEMS
These move together about 83% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
US GDP
GDP
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
What to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~6 days before US GDP
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on US GDP.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between GDP and PAYEMS indicates that changes in employment levels closely track economic output, suggesting that rising employment typically precedes increases in GDP by about six months. This timing is crucial for investors and policymakers, as it implies that monitoring employment trends can provide valuable insights into future economic growth. However, it's important to consider that while the relationship is robust, it doesn't account for all factors influencing the economy, so it should be used alongside other indicators for a comprehensive analysis.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+0.936
+0.03 stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does US GDP today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 6 days ago?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.484
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.176
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
r
+0.908
Pearson correlation
95% CI
0.82 → 0.95
Likely range
R²
81.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
82.9%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
316
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
316 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
316
1,047
Normalized
316
1,047
Prepared
316
1,047
Aligned
316
316
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
731
A: 0 / B: 731
Series A
GDP
FRED · 316 raw → 316 prepared
Series B
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.8851
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
67929.0925
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp-vs-fred-payems-daily-20260406-abpy0n